By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Chook Track of the Day

Masked Finch, Edith Falls Rd at -14.1871,132.0824, Roper Gulf, Northern Territory, Australia. For Halloween, little question.

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Politics

“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

Biden Administration

Reagan higher on Israel than Biden:

To be honest, perhaps Biden’s forgotten the way to decide up a cellphone?

“White Home unveils wide-ranging motion to mitigate AI dangers” [Reuters]. “NetChoice, a nationwide commerce affiliation that features main tech platforms, described the manager order as an ‘AI Purple Tape Wishlist,’ that may find yourself “stifling new firms and rivals from coming into {the marketplace} and considerably increasing the ability of the federal authorities over American innovation.’” All good, i true, however I doubt very a lot that it’s. Extra: “As a part of the order, the Commerce Division will ‘develop steering for content material authentication and watermarking’ for labeling objects which are generated by AI, to ensure authorities communications are clear, the White Home stated in a launch.” • Wonderful that AI, which is much extra pernicious than Bitcoin — bullshit era at scale, based on the outright theft of mental property, and a recipe for crapifying the discourse in near-real time — is being normalized with unimaginable pace. I suppose Bitcoin impacted the monetary sector, so it’s necessary.

Our Famously Free Press

2024

Time for the Countdown Clock!

Solely seven extra days till it’s a full yr to election day!

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“Trump holds lead in Iowa ballot whereas Haley ties DeSantis for second” [Politico]. “The ballot additionally discovered that 65 p.c of doubtless caucusgoers imagine Trump can win a common election towards President Joe Biden regardless of the authorized challenges the previous president faces — whereas 32 p.c stated it will be almost unimaginable for him to beat Biden.”

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Vivek the goat sacrificer:


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“Minnesota congressman proclaims major problem to Biden, saying Democrats should give attention to future” [Los Angeles Times]. Oddly, I can’t search any New Hampshire protection in any respect; not the Union-Chief, not the Harmony Monitor. “The Minnesota congressman lastly entered the race himself Friday, asserting exterior the New Hampshire State Home: ‘It’s time for the torch to be handed to a brand new era of American leaders.’… Phillips stated in his speech that he’d attempt to repair the financial system [horserace], and warned about excessive costs [horserace] and ‘the chaos at our border’ [horserace] — points that may very well be vulnerabilities for Biden in what may very well be a rematch towards former President Trump. However Terry Shumaker, a former DNC member from New Hampshire and longtime Biden supporter, stated[:] ‘I’m not conscious of what his message is,’ he stated. ‘To do effectively within the New Hampshire major, it’s a must to have a message.”” • Watch “no message” turn into the speaking level.

“My Invitation to America” (e-mail) [Dean Phillips, Phillips for President (CI)]. For some purpose, I can solely discover the speech in its entirety in just a few YouTube clips. Right here is the message that DNC goon Shumaker was unable to seek out, and which the Los Angeles Instances didn’t quote:

However we, America’s , know that one thing has gone terribly, terribly improper [“carnage”].

We face a disaster of cooperation and of frequent sense.

A disaster of group and of particular person initiative.

And an issue of participation and priorities.

For in the present day’s America spends extra paying our money owed of the previous than investing in our future.

A majority of our neighbors dwell paycheck to paycheck, unable to get forward and save for his or her desires.

Life is just unaffordable.

We fund extra for combating than we do for feeding.

Companies and the effectively off – together with me – take pleasure in extra favorable tax remedy than working households.

Too lots of our kids are hungry and our veterans homeless. Anger and violence is rising, as our life expectancy is falling. Gun violence ravages our communities, and we tolerate it.

America has no well being care, solely sick care that’s costlier than wherever else on the planet.

We’ve no psychological well being system, solely a system of greed and corruption.

Chaos at our border and in our cities is rising, whereas our dedication to countering it’s receding.

Costs are too excessive, healthcare and drugs too costly, and illnesses of despair are claiming our kids by means of dependancy and suicide.

We spend billions sending our troopers to international lands and nonetheless haven’t mounted the failures in Flint.

And are so busy combating each other that we now have ceased the combat towards our best challenges.

So come on, America! We’re higher! So let’s do higher. It’s time for we [sic], , to satisfy this second!

“The exhausted majority” may ring a bell. It does with me! (Except “exhaustion” is a subliminal nudge, there’s no point out of Covid in any respect. A 3rd rail?) Readers?

“Opinion: There could also be extra to Dean Phillips’ ‘moon shot’ presidential bid than meets the attention” [CNN]. Has a helpful potted biography of Phillips. “[W]inning an uncontested early major is likely to be the enhance [Phillips] must turn into a a lot bigger determine within the nationwide dialog [lol]. It’s laborious to argue that Biden would have ended up choosing Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg for vp and transportation secretary had they not launched their very own ‘long-shot’ presidential runs again in 2019. Not that Phillips is essentially eyeing a cabinet-level place in a second Biden time period. He’s nonetheless on the poll for his congressional seat in his dwelling district in Minnesota, though he’ll doubtless face a formidable major challenger. Extra doubtless, Phillips is trying to make use of the opening in New Hampshire to get his title in play for a 2028 presidential run, when Biden will both be on the finish of his term-limits or too outdated to run once more.” • “Nationwide dialog” is a inform; a deep-dyed Democrat loyalist. That is absolutely the traditional knowledge. Phillips’ biography is attention-grabbing. I don’t see why he’d be working for transportation secretary. He may lose, however my totally unevidenced scorching take is that he’s “in it to win it,” having assessed that Biden is a far weaker candidate than he seems, each politically and bodily/psychically. (Perhaps some intelligent Democratic strategist performed him a video timeline of Biden strolling, sitting, standing, speaking, folding deckchairs, and many others.; juiced up, and never. Actually, I’m stunned there isn’t such a factor runnning round.)

“Joe Biden’s Massive New Hampshire Blunder” [Politico]. “By scrapping Iowa, demoting New Hampshire from its first-in-the-nation perch and shifting up South Carolina to start the balloting, President Joe Biden hoped to preempt a nuisance major problem that would embarrass him earlier than the overall election. However which may be exactly what he has invited upon himself…. Mixing the keenness of a pre-adolescent gazing up at a T-Rex likeness and the completely satisfied warrior pleasure of his political hero Hubert Humphrey, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) set free back-to-back ‘wows,’ signed his declaration of candidacy and paid the $1,000 to seem on New Hampshire’s presidential poll. Then he went about . ‘I realized to like my nation proper right here in New Hampshire,; Phillips stated, recounting to the photographers, reporters and state officers cramped into the Secretary of State’s capitol workplace his summers spent at a camp within the White Mountains. (The camp is technically in Maine although alongside the New Hampshire border, because the Union Chief reported.) He additionally revealed his inscription on the paperwork: ‘I like New Hampshire.’” • BWA-HA-HA-HA!!!! Cross my coronary heart, no backsies, I wrote the “in it to win it” paragraph earlier than I learn this!

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“Pence ends White Home marketing campaign after struggling to achieve traction. ‘This isn’t my time,’ he says” [Associated Press]. “Pence’s choice, greater than two months earlier than the Iowa caucuses that he had staked his marketing campaign on, saves him from accumulating extra debt, in addition to the embarrassment of doubtless failing to qualify for the third Republican major debate, on Nov. 8 in Miami. However his withdrawal is a big blow for a politician who spent years biding his time as Trump’s most loyal lieutenant, solely to be scapegoated throughout their ultimate days in workplace when Trump grew to become satisfied that Pence by some means had the ability to overturn the outcomes of the 2020 election and hold each males in workplace — which he didn’t. Whereas Pence averted a constitutional disaster by rejecting the scheme, he drew Trump’s fury, in addition to the wrath of lots of Trump’s supporters, who nonetheless believed his lies concerning the election and see Pence as a traitor. Amongst Trump critics, in the meantime, Pence was seen as an enabler who defended the previous president at each flip and refused to criticize even Trump’s most indefensible actions. In consequence, an Related Press-NORC Heart for Public Affairs Analysis from August discovered that almost all of U.S. adults, 57%, seen Pence negatively, with solely 28% having a optimistic view.” • Oof.

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Newsom in China:

That will need to have gone over massive together with his hosts. At the least Newsom didn’t kick a pet!

Republican Funhouse

Wait, Johnson’s a liberal Democrat?

Democrats en Déshabillé

Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are really studying the back-dated submit! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I should try this. –lambert

I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Get together (“the Democrat Get together is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated submit, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Get together is, actually, a tough drawback. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:

The Democrat Get together is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Get together didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Get together reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Get together (ka-ching, however not fully) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.

Word, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different lessons; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.

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“Andy Kim is making a giant wager on breaking New Jersey Democratic politics” [Politico]. • Andy Kim is a CIA Democrat.

#COVID19

“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Normal Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the crops. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater experiences); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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Maskstravaganza

Shot:

Extraordinary psychological gyrations!

Chaser:

s
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Oh for pity’s sake:

Hotez is being careless and silly, and setting a nasty instance. WTF?

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N95 electrostatic explainer:

Covid is Airborne

The CBS 60 Minutes program signifies that airborne is lastly getting a whole lot of play. Bear in mind the Skagit Valley refrain? One of many first circumstances that confirmed how aerosol transmission in a “3-C’s” (closed, crowded, close-contact) setting led to super-spreading occasions. Right here it’s:

Right here is that research. Should you spend time in a efficiency house, like a choir, it’s possible you’ll discover it helpful–

“Lowering bioaerosol emissions and exposures within the performing arts” [Colorado State University]. From 2021: “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention (CDC) advocates sustaining six toes from others to stop the unfold of Coronavirus Illness 2019 (COVID-19); nonetheless, that is based mostly on anticipated airborne particles [the study proper says “bio-aerosols“] emitted throughout common respiration. Efficiency artists usually tend to show forced-air respiration (i.e., singing, taking part in musical devices or dancing, amongst different inventive expressions), which is extra like sneezing and coughing. Whereas information is missing, there may be growing consensus that infectious aerosolized particles containing SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 are partly accountable for world unfold. In keeping with one current research, the transmission distance of SARS-CoV-2 could also be greater than 13 toes (https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2607.200885). Sadly, many contaminated people don’t notice they’re contaminated; and group actions equivalent to choir, dance, appearing, or instrument ensembles improve the danger of unfold. Options are wanted to cut back the danger of viral unfold throughout performances and group observe settings.” Even in 2021, CDC was totally feckless. Right here is the paper.

Airborne sources. Fairly an inventory:

Testing and Monitoring

“Detecting Covid surges is getting tougher, because of a contract dispute” [Politico]. Biobot v. Verily makes Politico (!). “The Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention needs to exchange the agency it has labored with since 2020 to check wastewater for Covid as a way to higher direct public well being sources. However that agency, Massachusetts-based Biobot, has filed a protest, stymieing the transition….. In an interview, CDC Director Mandy Cohen declined to touch upon the specifics of the dispute, saying it was a “contracting state of affairs.’” I don’t imagine that anyone has really seen the contract. Extra: “The CDC has not defined why it determined to alter contractors, although its take care of Verily[, a subsidiary of Google’s parent company,] is significantly cheaper. Verily’s contract is for $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract was for about $31 million over lower than a yr and a half.” NIH blew a billion {dollars} on a ineffective Lengthy Covid research. This cash is sofa change. Extra: “Even when Verily is ready to start work quickly, some foresee issues associated to the continuity of the information. ‘The loss is the lack of historic comparability. It’s like ranging from day zero with a brand new surveillance system,’ stated David Larsen, chair of the general public well being division at Syracuse College and a wastewater surveillance researcher. ‘It’s not splendid to alter strategies.’ A CDC spokesperson stated the difficulty might be addressed however declined to say how.” • Little question. Usually, I’d be up in arms concerning the lack of a proxy for case information, however AFAIAK, Biobot’s enterprise mannequin doesn’t contain monetizing the information, and as I’ve stated, it’s a very good wager Verily’s does (as a result of in any other case why muscle in with a lowball bid?) Since I feel monetizing wastewater information — and little question integrating it with location information, search information, and many others. — is a dystopian undertaking, I’m with Biobot quickly. And I hope they produce the oddly not public contract. Hey, perhaps Mandy needs a job in Silicon Valley! She is, in spite of everything, a Democrat….

“Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest towards CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS]. “erily’s bid for the contract was accepted outright by the CDC, which pays the corporate $38 million over 5 years. Biobot’s most up-to-date contract with the CDC was for $31 million over lower than 18 months, or almost three-fold increased. The funding offered by means of numerous foundations means Verily may simply underbid some other contract proposition. An epidemiologist conversant in these proceedings who requested to not be named remarked, ‘The CDC should be dumping one thing for a bid that low.’” Hmm. Perhaps nuking the historic information is the purpose? Extra: “Crucial concern at play is the financialization of public well being within the US by means of these private-public enterprises, whereby essential info illness outbreak, the opioid disaster, and the inhabitants’s common well being indices might be accrued and monopolized by large conglomerates like Alphabet. This has important implications for insurance coverage firms, federal businesses, surveillance of the inhabitants, and extra.” • No duh. To not point out the general public.

“A lapse in COVID wastewater detection is worrying scientists about distorted information” [Salon]. “‘The most important concern to me doing wastewater modeling is simply its disruption,” [Michael Hoerger, Ph.D., a psychologist at Tulane University] informed Salon in a cellphone interview. ‘Individuals depend on this information.’” Tinfoil hat time: Maybe the burying disruption of the information, to CDC, is a function, not a bug. Actually CDC’s failure to offer a seamless transition would argue in favor of the concept. Then once more: “When the CDC equally transferred contracts within the spring of 2022 from LuminUltra to Biobot, information was unavailable for 150 wastewater websites in 29 states for a number of weeks.” So CDC has kind, and Hanlon’s Razor may apply. Extra: “Andrew Wang, Ph.D., a well being fairness researcher at Northwestern College Feinberg Faculty of Drugs, stated he’s involved the change in contracts could change the pattern processing and analyses in a manner that stops Verily’s information from being immediately in contrast with Biobot’s a whole bunch of websites. The “bumpy” switch is lowering an already inadequate surveillance system, Wang stated.” In the meantime, CDC’s personal tracker is awful, what a shock: “Hoerger stated he’d prefer to see the CDC’s wastewater system ramp up the variety of testing websites it contains and make its information extra available. ‘It could have been nice in the event that they used their funding to do the kinds of analyses that I’m doing and that others are doing to estimate circumstances, to make forecasts and to take their uncooked wastewater information and put it into metrics that folks really care about,’ Hoerger stated.”

“One thing Terrible”

Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” is likely to be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, more than likely deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona modifications therefrom.

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“SARS-CoV-2 virus discovered emigrate inside neurons and infect the mind” [Pasteur Institute, Medical Xpress]. “For the primary time, researchers on the Institut Pasteur and Université Paris Cité have demonstrated, in an animal mannequin, a attribute frequent to a number of SARS-CoV-2 variants: the flexibility to contaminate the central nervous system. The research confirms that SARS-CoV-2 is able to infecting human neurons in vitro and migrating into axons, the nerve cell projections that carry info…. ‘On this research, we demonstrated that an infection of the olfactory bulb is frequent to all variants and never linked to any specific one, nor to any specific scientific manifestation equivalent to anosmia,’ explains Guilherme Dias de Melo, first creator of the research and researcher within the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit…. By this research, we now have characterised the neurotropism of SARS-CoV-2. For all of the variants studied, ,” concludes Hervé Bourhy, final creator of the research and head of the Institut Pasteur’s Lyssavirus, Epidemiology and Neuropathology Unit.” • Yikes. Word that the mind an infection doesn’t essentially produce anosmia; however it might, relying on the variant. Does some intelligent programmer want to construct a screen-scraping “Yankee Candle Evaluation Index™”?

Elite Maleficence

The UK’s Dominic Cummings (!) from 2021 (!!):

I may have missed it, however I don’t recall this getting any play in any respect.

The Jackpot

I’ve been considering alongside these strains for awhile:

Extra:

I’m extra hopeful than this account. However, our civilizational response to the pandemic persuades me that one thing on this scale is happening (although naturally we want a “mechanism,” traditionally located, after all).

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Case Knowledge

From BioBot wastewater information, October 30:

Lambert right here: Circumstances leveling out to a excessive plateau wasn’t on my Bingo card!

Regional information:

• “Biobot Analytics recordsdata protest towards CDC issuing wastewater surveillance contract to Verily” [WSWS] “What emerges from the resumption of Biobot’s evaluation on Friday is that [as I’ve been muttering for some time]. In early October, scientist Mike Hoerger, the founding director of Louisiana’s HealthPsych, estimated that by the top of October transmission charges can be upwards of 745,000 circumstances per day.” • For extra on Biobot, see beneath Testing, supra.

Variants

NOT UPDATED From CDC, October 28:

Lambert right here: High of the leaderboard: HV.1, EG.5 a robust second, with FL.1.15.1 and XBB.1.1.16.6 trailing. No BA.2.86 (though that has confirmed up in CDC’s airport testing). Nonetheless a Bouillabaisse…

From CDC, October 14:

Lambert right here: I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart relies upon, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services reduce by directors of ailing intent).

CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information might be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of optimistic take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

Covid Emergency Room Visits

NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, October 21:

Lambert right here: Flattening? Solely every week’s lag, so this can be our greatest present nationwide, present indicator till Verily will get its home so as (and dealing class-centric, since I’d doubt the higher crust goes to the ER).

NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not your entire pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, a minimum of for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, regardless that CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections.

Hospitalization

Bellwether New York Metropolis, information as of October 30:

Hospitalization is leveling out, too. (I hate this metric as a result of the lag makes it misleading, though the hospital-centric public well being institution loves it, hospitalization and deaths being the one metrics that matter [snort]).

Right here’s a distinct CDC visualization on hospitalization, nationwide, not by state, however with a date, a minimum of. October 21:

Lambert right here: “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”. So the place the heck is the replace, CDC?

Positivity

NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, October 23:

0.7%. Slight improve. (It could be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.)

From Cleveland Clinic, October 28:

Lambert right here: Slight improve. I do know that is simply Ohio, however the Cleveland Clinic is sweet*, and we’re starved for information, so…. NOTE * Even when hospital an infection management is making an attempt to kill sufferers by eliminating common masking with N95s.

NOT UPDATED From CDC, traveler’s information, October 9:

Down, albeit within the rear view mirror. And listed below are the variants for vacationers:

Sudden massive BA.2.86 look.

Deaths

NOT UPDATED Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, September 27:

Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Knowledge Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, by way of the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Circumstances-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Knowledge are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?

Whole: 1,180,403 – 1,180,376 = 27 (27 * 365 = 9855 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit increased than the minimizers would really like, although they’ll discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could need to resolve that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this specific tranche of dying and illness). 

Extra Deaths

The Economist, October 27:

Lambert right here: Primarily based on a machine-learning mannequin.

Stats Watch

Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’s common enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas fell to -19.2 in October of 2023, down from -18.1 within the prior month, and marking the 18th consecutive unfavourable studying to recommend a sustained deterioration in enterprise circumstances.”

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At the moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 32 Concern (earlier shut: 23 Excessive Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 28 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Oct 30 at 1:52:19 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 185. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra trustworthy than most! • The goat sacrificers are going to defile the Al Aqsa mosque, and the Rapture Index is down? I hardly had them within the contrarian field!

Class Warfare

“New York Instances tech employees to strike over return-to-office guidelines” [Reuters]. “Tech employees on the New York Instances (NYT.N) plan to strike for half a day on Monday, accusing the writer of making an attempt to unilaterally drive them again to the workplace….The New York Instances issued its return-to-office coverage earlier than the tech guild was acknowledged early final yr, when employees voted 404-88 to affix the NewsGuild of New York, making TTG the most important tech union within the U.S. with bargaining rights. Tech employees on the union have been in contract talks with the corporate for greater than a yr. ‘The Instances is no longer solely refusing to acknowledge our rights to cut price on return-to-office however is now going a step additional and utilizing it as a tactic to intimidate us,’ stated Kathy Zhang, unit chair for the guild that features software program engineers and information analysts.”

“The Secretive Trade Devouring the U.S. Economic system” [The Atlantic]. “The publicly traded firm is disappearing. In 1996, about 8,000 corporations had been listed within the U.S. inventory market. Since then, the nationwide financial system has grown by almost $20 trillion. The inhabitants has elevated by 70 million individuals. And but, in the present day, the variety of American public firms stands at fewer than 4,000. How can that be? One reply is that the private-equity business is devouring them. … In 2000, private-equity corporations managed about 4 p.c of whole U.S. company fairness. By 2021, that quantity was nearer to twenty p.c. In different phrases, personal fairness has been rising almost 5 instances quicker than the U.S. financial system as an entire…. Most cautious tutorial research discover that though private-equity funds barely outperformed the inventory market on common previous to the early 2000s, they now not achieve this. While you keep in mind their excessive charges, they look like a worse funding than a easy index fund.” • As Yves has been saying for a while.

Information of the Wired

“How deep is the mind? The shallow mind speculation” [Nature]. “Deep studying and predictive coding architectures generally assume that inference in neural networks is hierarchical. Nonetheless, largely uncared for in deep studying and predictive coding architectures is the neurobiological proof that each one hierarchical cortical areas, increased or decrease, undertaking to and obtain alerts immediately from subcortical areas. Given these neuroanatomical info, in the present day’s dominance of cortico-centric, hierarchical architectures in deep studying and predictive coding networks is very questionable; such architectures are prone to be lacking important computational rules the mind makes use of. On this Perspective, we current the shallow mind speculation: hierarchical cortical processing is built-in with a massively parallel course of to which subcortical areas considerably contribute. This shallow structure exploits the computational capability of cortical microcircuits and thalamo-cortical loops that aren’t included in typical hierarchical deep studying and predictive coding networks. We argue that the shallow mind structure offers a number of essential advantages over deep hierarchical constructions and a extra full depiction of how mammalian brains obtain quick and versatile computational capabilities.” • So, ML is bullshit? What a shock! And what a vindication of Conway’s Legislation! The perfessors and Silicon Valley bros used the org chart for his or her structure!

“Assyrian Girls of Letters”” [Archeology]. ” As was achieved with a lot Assyrian correspondence, one or each of Zizizi’s mother and father would have taken a stone cylinder that hung from a twine round their neck and rolled it throughout the envelope’s floor, making a ribbonlike impression or seal. Her mom’s seal depicts tall deerlike figures with lengthy horns standing upright, each leaning on a workers. This seal was distinctive to Ishtar-bashti and functioned like an ID, signaling to Zizizi that the letter was certainly from her mom…. Almost 4,000 years later, archaeologists found the indignant missive throughout excavations on the website of the traditional metropolis in central Turkey, now referred to as Kültepe, a low, grassy plain topped by a tall mound. Greater than 23,000 cuneiform tablets have been uncovered on the website. Of those, epigrapher and Assyriologist Cécile Michel of the French Nationwide Heart for Scientific Analysis has curated and interpreted greater than 300 that bear letters written by or to girls who belonged to a extremely literate Assyrian service provider class.” • Stone cylinders do have the benefit that they’re far much less straightforward to hack…

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Contact info for crops: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photos of crops. Greens are high quality! Fungi and coral are deemed to be honorary crops! If you would like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From Carla:

Carla writes: “Beautyberry simply beginning to strut its stuff.”

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Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not lined by the annual NC fundraiser. So in the event you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to specific your appreciation in tangible kind. Bear in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common optimistic suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get apprehensive. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I think about that trickle when setting fundraising objectives:

Right here is the display screen that may seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

Should you hate PayPal, you possibly can e-mail me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, and I provides you with instructions on the way to ship a examine. Thanks!

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